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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 26 August 2025
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Displaying 2881 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

Earlier, you said that, if the OBR is being a bit optimistic and the SFC is being a bit pessimistic, it will come out in the wash in a few years’ time. I get that. That is not exactly what you said, but it was roughly that.

The problem for us is that, in the short term—the next one, two or three years—those forecasts affect our budget, so we could end up making savings that we would not need in the long run because everything would come out in the wash and the economy would, in fact, recover. Is there not a problem if one forecast is cautious and another is optimistic?

12:30  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

There would be short-term pain for long-term gain.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

Yes, that is right.

I think that schools still think that way in a sense. Earlier, I made a comparison between my nephews. I do not want to provide too many personal details, but one of my nephews went to university and it will take him some time to earn wages, whereas my other nephew did not and is earning very good wages. In the short term, that helps with tax. Are we emphasising going to university and getting academic qualifications too much, at the expense of practical apprenticeships such as those in engineering and so on?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

Thank you for that. I do not want to spend too much longer on the subject, but I highlight that one of my nephews, who is aged 22, did not go to university but has done extremely well and has bought his own house.

The main point that I want to discuss concerns the GDP growth rates. We have an interesting paper from the Scottish Parliament information centre that contains predicted growth rates. Those predictions have been made over a relatively short time, but I accept that timing might be part of the issue.

10:45  

According to the paper, the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s prediction is for a 3.8 per cent growth in GDP in 2022; the Fraser of Allander Institute’s is for 4.8 per cent; the Office for Budget Responsibility’s is for 6 per cent; the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s is for 4.7 per cent; the Bank of England’s is for 5 per cent; and HM Treasury’s is for 5 per cent.

The OBR’s prediction seems to be a bit of an outlier, as it is quite high. It was made in October, which was only two months ago, and your prediction is more recent. Can you say a bit more about those differences? Obviously, the issue has a real effect on our budget, and the OBR’s prediction seems very high.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

I am interested in what Graeme Roy said about differentiating between what we can and cannot change, and in some of the comments about productivity, which is probably more the work of the Economy and Fair Work Committee—I think that Michelle Thomson also sits on that committee.

I still wonder about productivity. Putting two crew members on a train is less productive than putting one on it, but doing so increases safety, enables the collection of fares and so on, so productivity is not always an issue. Is tourism a sector in which it is harder to have good productivity, because a good hotel has more staff and looks after people better? I am not sure.

Where I am going with this is that we cannot control the population, in one sense, but we could control it with immigration. Out of all that we are talking about—productivity, skills and population—is population the biggest issue? Is that what is holding us back?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

John Mason

We have not said very much in this session about capital expenditure. We seem to be coming to the limit of how much we can borrow for capital expenditure, which is ÂŁ3 billion. If we have to cut back on capital expenditure, will that result in a hit on growth in the economy?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Vaccination Programme

Meeting date: 9 December 2021

John Mason

You are suggesting that some people have questions but are not getting the opportunity to ask them and have them answered, but do you think that some people just would not engage even if you were there all day to answer questions? Is not that the traditional male view that you described?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Vaccination Programme

Meeting date: 9 December 2021

John Mason

Thank you—that was helpful. Did you want to come in, too, Mohammed Razaq?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Vaccination Programme

Meeting date: 9 December 2021

John Mason

We will make a note of that and take it on board.

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Vaccination Programme

Meeting date: 9 December 2021

John Mason

Eman Hani talked about scepticism about Government and health services. Do we just have to accept that it will take 20 or 30 years to overcome, or is there some quicker way of overcoming that?

It has also been suggested previously that some people in the Polish community get advice from Poland, so they hear what the Polish health service is saying. Is that an issue? Does Eman want to come back in on that?