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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 29 June 2025
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Displaying 2810 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

I will touch mainly on points that have been raised to some extent already. You have explained why Scotland’s earnings have been ahead of the UK’s in the past couple of years and in the current year. Are you assuming that that will continue to be the case? If so, is there a danger that that is a little bit optimistic?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

Okay, but there is certainly a risk that we do not continue as we have been in the past couple of years.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

In the past, almost the opposite happened, with quite large negative tax reconciliations being forecast that—thankfully—got a bit smaller. Do you think, then, that we are going in the opposite direction, with quite big positive reconciliations being forecast that might well reduce?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

Okay. The figure of £668 million has been mentioned already. It is just 3.5 per cent of Scottish income tax revenues, which, as you have said in the report, is

“a relatively small shift in terms of income tax forecasts.”

I accept that, if we could forecast most things within 3.5 per cent, things would be fine. However, it is a very big figure when it comes to what we are allowed to have in reserves or to borrow. You seem to be quite relaxed about it, but do you understand that, for us and for the Government, the figure is quite worrying?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

John Mason

My final question is on paragraph 196 of the annual report, which says:

“The Scottish Fiscal Commission is not yet subject to the Public Sector Equality Duty”.

Can you explain why and what is happening there?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

John Mason

Did you suggest earlier that that is more of a challenge for the UK because our interest rates are more index linked? Are other countries different?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

John Mason

Is it about the choices that other—certainly, European—countries made? They did not do the same amount of quantitative easing but did more traditional debt.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

John Mason

I will ask you some of the same questions that I asked the first panel, so if you were watching, you will know what they will be.

My first question is on debt interest. I think that it was in March that the OBR forecast debt interest to be £94 billion. Now, it is saying that the figure will be £116 billion for 2023-24. When I asked the witnesses from the OBR about that, they just said that they follow the markets and that that is what the markets said. Should the OBR be able to forecast a bit more accurately on a figure like that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

John Mason

Is there any backdating? Does revising the GDP deflator have any practical effect?