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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 20 August 2025
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Displaying 1222 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

For different reasons, presumably.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

Do you have any idea of the numbers that are coming back?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

We were talking about that earlier. Obviously, different interpretations can be made of the data that is available to allow the OBR to make its predictions. You are absolutely right to say that the biggest challenge for the UK economy, in order to increase productivity, is to ensure that we get far more people back into the labour market than we have at the moment. However, different age groups seem to have different reasons as to why they are out of the labour market. That is a really big challenge.

Different policies will have different effects on younger cohorts or on older people who are approaching retirement and who happen to have taken it early because of the pandemic. I am interested in what policies we should be pursuing, especially if there are different reasons for people being out of the labour market. Are there specific trends that we should be wary of?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

Good morning. I will pursue that issue of productivity, which is absolutely critical, as Professor Miles said. I also want to interrogate the panel about the unemployment forecast and the participation forecast, which are extremely important.

You said earlier that for the unemployment forecast you are using material from the business labour market surveys, information from HM Revenue and Customs and the Department for Work and Pensions, and so on. Your prediction for the end of next year is that the unemployment rate will be 5.5 to 6 per cent. Are you detecting that there is a danger of an increase in unemployment in any particular sectors?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

That is all very helpful. During the past several years, we have had various deliberations about how we articulate the forecasts from the OBR, the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for National Statistics. Although it is nobody’s fault, there is frustration that we cannot get the forecasts all lined up and covering the same time period. That is very difficult for both Governments, particularly the Scottish Government, which is having to interrogate all three of the forecasts, whereas that is not the case in Westminster. Based on comments that we have had from other witnesses, I understand that co-operation between all three groups is very good. Is there any way that we can try to minimise the problem with the time lag between different forecasts and ensure that they are all on the same page?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

That is very helpful because it is an area that is absolutely critical to productivity. It is important to ensure that we have absolute accuracy when it comes to the numbers of people in the different categories of income levels, as they will obviously benefit the tax revenue and things like that.

10:15  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

I am sorry. May I come back on that? You are arguing that there should be other factors in improving that fiscal rule, so I am a bit confused as to why you think that it is too loose, when you feel—

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

Good morning. I want to ask you about a comment that your colleague Paul Johnson made, which was that he felt that Mr Hunt was on course—just “on course”—to meet what he described as

“his (poorly designed) fiscal rule”.

What do you feel is “poorly designed” about it, and what would you like to see instead?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

Thank you for that. Therefore, there is a problem with regard to the timescale but you also feel that it is not sufficiently diverse in its targets—it is too tight. Is that what you are saying?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

I will come on to inactivity in a minute. On unemployment, are there trends suggesting that there are different parts of the UK where the threat of rising unemployment is worse, or is it too early to tell?