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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 18 August 2025
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Displaying 2212 contributions

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Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

A number of other areas that are covered in the report also face potential challenges. Exhibit 3 shows them quite starkly, and the report says:

“By the end of 2028/29, the Scottish Fiscal Commission expects the Scottish Government will spend £1.5 billion more on social security than it receives from the UK Government.”

Paragraph 16 says:

“The spending pressures the Scottish Government and the wider devolved public sector face are expected to worsen in the long term. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has projected that total spending on devolved public services would increase by 123 per cent in today’s prices to £120 billion by 2072/73”.

The Auditor General is really stretching things there; I am not sure how he can look that far ahead, but that is what the report says. Health is also covered. That faces similar challenges. Do you accept that those challenges exist across a whole range of spending?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

But we do not have an accurate figure.

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

If we look at pay deals, which are covered from paragraph 38 onwards of the Auditor General’s report and in exhibit 5, we see that some of them are frankly unsustainable. How will you be able to fund those in future years?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

What kinds of bids are coming in?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

Okay. The Auditor General told us a bit more about how the Welsh Government undertakes forecasting and reporting at the evidence session that we had in December, and we were told that it

“published a strategic integrated impact assessment that looked at the impact that reductions in spending might have on different groups.”—[Official Report, Public Audit Committee, 5 December 2024; c 7.]

Is that something that you are looking to copy or adapt in some way?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

It might be the right objective, but the point that the report makes is that hitting that objective will take a lot more money than is likely to be there. That is the nub of it, is it not?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

To bring all that together, if we accept that there are funding gaps—for social security, the figure is not too distant from being a very big funding gap, and we have spoken about pay deals—and if the Scottish Government is to make such policy choices, which I accept are not yours but those of ministers, it will have to look at making savings or cuts in other areas, will it not?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

Thank you.

I am now going to ask you about ScotWind; other members might have questions about it, too. I do not know whether you have seen the letter that the Auditor General wrote to the committee on 18 December, but I will quote from it. He says:

“It is not clear from our papers how the ScotWind monies have been used in each of these financial years and whether this is consistent with the earlier intentions, expressed throughout 2022, for this money to be invested in addressing the climate and biodiversity crises.”

What is your response to that?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

It would be useful if you could give us that written consolidation.

It is fair to say that some of the ScotWind money went to fund pay deals. Is that correct?

Public Audit Committee

“Fiscal sustainability and public reform in Scotland”

Meeting date: 5 March 2025

Graham Simpson

I am going to ask you about net zero next. I will read paragraph 18 of the Auditor General’s report to you:

“The Scottish Government’s target of achieving net zero by 2045 is also placing pressure on its finances, and will continue to do so ... The Scottish Fiscal Commission estimates that, in order to meet its climate objectives, the Scottish Government will need to invest an average of £1.14 billion of additional capital spending annually until 2049/50. However, the Scottish Fiscal Commission has also forecast that the capital funding that the Scottish Government receives will have fallen by 20 per cent in real terms by 2028/29. This will place significant pressure on other areas of capital spending.”

Do you accept that analysis?