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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 21 August 2025
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Displaying 3539 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I would like to know the change within each band. My understanding is that there is a significant difference between the impacts of behavioural change in the two.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. John Ireland, do you want to come in? No? Sorry鈥攜ou are just wiggling your pen about. Remember, this is like an auction鈥攊f you touch your nose or anything like that, I will bring you in and expect you to buy a clock or something.

You touched on income tax, which I think is worth exploring. You have explored that in some detail in your report, but could you talk us through the income tax position a wee bit more. I am also very interested in the impact, as you see it, of income tax on behavioural change, as we are a year on from last year鈥檚 increases to the two highest tax rates in Scotland.

10:30  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for that. It is certainly an issue that we will revisit.

Another significant area of revenue for the Scottish Government is non-domestic rates, in which I see that a quite significant increase is anticipated not next year, when you say that revenues will fall from 拢3,175 million to 拢3,052 million, but the following year, when you expect them to jump quite significantly by about 14 or 15 per cent. What is the reasoning for that? I see that they kind of level out after that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

That is fair enough. That is clear. You do not expect a massive retail boom or something like that, with everyone coughing up hugely higher rates. You have more or less explained that it is to do with the cycle.

You said that you have not included figures on national insurance contributions in the report. The Scottish Government has suggested that the increase in NICs will cost the public sector about 拢549 million. There are organisations within the public sector, such as the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, that argue that their share will be significantly higher than the Scottish Government has estimated. Either way, the UK Government does not seem to be keen, for whatever reason鈥攎aybe because of the size of our public sector鈥攖o fully fund that 拢549 million, if that is indeed the figure, although discussions are continuing. What impact is that likely to have in terms of the overall budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Yes鈥攊n the context of non-domestic rates. Why is there such a big jump in your forecasts between 2025-26 and 2026-2027?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

We used to hear about Giffen goods鈥攚hen the price went up, people bought more of them.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

No, I think that that is quite clear.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

In future, we will have to ban you from those opening briefings, given that you have answered half the questions that I was going to ask鈥攐f course, many of those figures are in the documents already鈥攂ut we will try to progress, nonetheless.

You talked about the 拢1.3 billion in the autumn budget revision, which we discussed at some length in the session that we had in private before you came in. As you said, looking at the ABR, the Government has moved some way towards assessing next year鈥檚 budget compared with its most up-to-date position, but it seems that it has only gone halfway there. Can you elaborate a wee bit more on that issue and the difficulties that it causes you in setting out your forecasts for next year and assessing where we are?