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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 21 August 2025
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Displaying 3539 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

That is why I was looking at the overall net position. A significant fiscal stimulus is important, but I am not seeing any great increases in economic growth over the four years. In fact, the Office for Budget Responsibility seems to think that, although there will be a boost initially, it will, in effect, tail off over the next three to four years. Is that your assessment?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

What impact do you think the increase in social security spend is having on the economy and productivity?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I now open up the session to colleagues around the table.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

When we were taking evidence on the ABR, the Government told us that it did not really know where it was going, which can perhaps explain why it has not provided all the information that we would require on those portfolio spends.

Over the years, the committee has expressed concern about the fact that we get the exact same transfers from one portfolio to another occurring every year. The committee has been concerned, first, that the Government does not put the amounts into the portfolio line where they will ultimately go to be spent, and, secondly, that that distorts the pictures that we have here. In your report, for example, we have figure 2, but figure 3 is particularly illuminating if it really shows what the Government鈥檚 direction is. For example, I note that, in that table, most budgets are growing by between minus 9 per cent and plus 8 per cent compared with 2022-23, with the one notable exception being social protection, which is growing by 36 per cent. How fiscally sustainable is that, given the current economic situation in Scotland?

10:15  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

The third sector and organisations including universities have said that the increase will cost about 拢210 million and are pressing the Scottish Government to fund that, although, of course, it is a Westminster decision.

The private sector does not seem to be being talked about too much, but we have heard that there could be an impact of up to 拢1.5 billion on that sector. Given that the OBR has said that 75 per cent of the cost of the NICs increase will fall on workers and 25 per cent on business investment, will that impact on your projections for Scottish economic growth, productivity and income tax revenues?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Good morning, and welcome to the 35th meeting in 2024 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. The first item on our agenda is an evidence session with the Scottish Fiscal Commission to discuss the 2025-26 Scottish budget and its December 2024 economic and fiscal forecasts, which were both published on 4 December. From the Scottish Fiscal Commission, we are joined by Professor Graeme Roy, the chair; Professor David Ulph, a commissioner; John Ireland, the chief executive; and Claire Murdoch, the head of fiscal sustainability and public funding. I welcome you all to the meeting and invite Professor Roy to make a brief opening statement.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Okay. What we see in the capital budget is really interesting. There is a big boost of some 12 per cent in real terms, which is very impressive. It does not quite match the 2022-23 capital allocation, but it is a significant increase on what we have in the current year. However, by 2029-30, that declines to only 6 per cent above the current year. Is that unusual? One would have thought that it would be the opposite, because projects have to be signed off, funding has to be allocated, procurement has to be secured and all the rest of it. Is that an unusual picture?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I realise that the issue is really complex because, if people have better incomes and perhaps less anxiety and can buy better-quality food, one could argue that they will be less likely to be a burden on the NHS and so on. That is one way of looking at the matter, but it is about how we quantify that in human and economic terms.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I am about to wind up the session. Do you have any further points to make? In doing so, you can make a plug for your presentation tomorrow at half past 8 in the Holyrood room.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

It is not that early鈥攊t is at half 8 in the morning and there will be bacon rolls, scrambled egg rolls, rolls and sausage and all that stuff, so people can skip breakfast and go straight there. I look forward to seeing you and everyone else there tomorrow morning. Thank you very much for that.

As that was the only public item on our agenda, I will now move the committee into private session.

12:11 Meeting continued in private until 12:19.