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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 17 June 2025
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Displaying 3475 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

I just have a few more points, one of which is about pay. There is an underlying frustration with the Scottish Government’s pay policy, and we have discussed that on a couple of occasions. On average, it is an increase of 3 per cent over three years and 9 per cent in total. We already seem to be breaching that with national health service pay and, understandably, unions in other sectors are looking for similar pay increases. What impact would there be on those projections if, for example, pay settlements across the public sector mirrored those of the NHS?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

I have just a couple of further points. The first relates to social security. I am curious about employability services. The wee footnote in your report says:

“The forecast of Employability Services is an indicative forecast and includes spending on Fair Start Scotland and elements of No One Left Behind.”

You have the figure increasing from £52 million to £60 million to £73 million in the current year, which is an increase of about 15 to 20 per cent per year, and then you have it projected to go from £73 million to £70 million and remain at that level for five years. Is there a reason for that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for that opening statement. You seem to be concerned about the delay to publication of the medium-term financial strategy. I can almost sense a level of irritability as you talk about that. What impact has that had on the Scottish Fiscal Commission?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

As the Scottish Fiscal Commission does so well, it has set out income tax and social security forecasts in great detail for a number of years. Can you talk us through both of those forecasts?

First, let us look at income tax. I notice that it is projected that there will be a 23 per cent increase in income tax revenue during the next five years or so. How much of that increase will be down to fiscal drag and how much will be due to economic growth?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Public Inquiries (Cost Effectiveness)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Your submission also says:

“To believe that public safety hasn’t been compromised would be foolhardy.”

You go on to say:

“Officer wellbeing is being totally neglected”.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

One side effect of employer national insurance contributions going up is that it might incentivise companies—as Toyota has said—to invest further in capital rather than in labour, which could result in long-term dividends, although whether that will happen remains to be seen.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

I am just asking what you think the impact will be if we end up in that situation. In the past three years, we have had emergency statements in the autumn and I do not think that anybody is particularly keen on seeing that again. I do not think that the Government would want to be in that position. Is it a possibility, or are we not at that level?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

My final question is about capital funding, which has had quite a significant boost—15.7 per cent in real terms, which is quite impressive. However, what I found bizarre about that is the fact that it has been boosted so much in the first year and then declines for the year after to 3.5 per cent. It goes up again slightly and then goes down again, and then it goes down for three consecutive years. In a previous report, you said that, by the end of 2030-31, it will be much the same as it was in 2023.

What do you think was the thinking behind that? What are the pluses and minuses? I would have thought that, if you have a big increase in capital very suddenly but you do not have the increased workforce to deliver capital projects, you end up with inflation in construction and all the other areas. If it then ends up going down, you are stuck with those inflationary prices, potentially, and you end up getting less bang for your buck overall. What is your thinking on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Public Inquiries (Cost Effectiveness)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

The police are demand driven as well, but the situation still impacts on their services.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Public Inquiries (Cost Effectiveness)

Meeting date: 10 June 2025

Kenneth Gibson

How has it impacted on your services? What has been the impact to the public? What other services that the COPFS delivers have been delayed, for example?

12:15