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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 12 September 2025
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Displaying 3573 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I have one more question, which is about the block grant adjustment OBR tax forecasts. We have already heard that we do not expect much, if any, growth in the next few years, and we have heard about how living standards are going to fall. The OBR has predicted that Scotland’s income tax take, for example, will grow from just under £14.7 billion to just over £18.1 billion by 2027-28. That is a huge increase of almost £3.4 billion. Do you see that coming through fiscal drag or other measures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I would have thought that the idea of an office that tries to make tax simpler and more understandable would be a positive thing.

The OBR mentioned unemployment, which we have touched on only peripherally. The OBR expects UK unemployment to rise by between 3.6 and 4.9 per cent by 2024. That will be a significant proportion of the workforce, at in excess of 1.5 million people. What might the regional impacts of that be? How do you anticipate that impacting on Scotland?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Exactly. That is the point that I was trying to make, but you have made it much more articulately than I did.

I thank our witnesses for their excellent contributions and for answering all our questions, and I thank my colleagues round the table for their contributions, too.

That concludes the public part of today’s meeting. The next item on our agenda is consideration of our work programme, which we will discuss in private.

11:54 Meeting continued in private until 12:07.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Paul Johnson, who is the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said:

“what we are really doing is reaping the costs of a long-term failure to grow the economy, the effects of population ageing, and high levels of past borrowing”.

He concluded by saying:

“we are in for a long, hard, unpleasant journey; a journey that has been made more arduous than it might have been by a series of economic own goals”.

What could the UK Government do differently and what should the Scottish Government do differently, in the view of the IFS?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Good morning, and welcome to the 32nd meeting in 2022 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee.

Our first agenda item is an evidence session with the Institute for Fiscal Studies on the United Kingdom autumn budget statement and the wider UK context, with a view to informing our scrutiny of the upcoming Scottish budget 2023-24. We are joined remotely by David Phillips, associate director, and Ben Zaranko, senior research economist, at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. I welcome you both to the meeting.

I move straight to questions. Your submission states that the Office for Budget Responsibility notes that the UK’s economic position with regard to fiscal policy has been beset in the past six months by

“a series of dramatic swings in the direction of fiscal policy with five major fiscal statements delivered by three successive governments”

and that

“the net impact of this series of announcements and reversals has been to add over £40 billion of borrowing by 2027-28”.

What will the impact of that be on not just the UK economy but Scotland’s economy?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Ben, do you want to come in?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

We can all see that the plan is for the real impact of the budget to fall after the next UK general election. Do you disagree with the OBR when it says that these continual policy changes have cost ÂŁ40 billion in additional borrowing? That seems to be the implications of your response, David.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government’s Continuous Improvement Programme and Updated Complaints Policy

Meeting date: 22 November 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I could have understood such an approach 20 years ago, perhaps, but we now live in a fetid environment on social media, and the fact that a minister is named will mean that he or she will continue to be vilified. “No smoke without fire”, and all that kind of stuff, will still be said. Is that fair to a minister and his or her family? The complainant will not be named, so they will be able to continue with their work, even though they have made a complaint that is not upheld, but there will still be murk around the minister, will there not? That cannot possibly be fair and it is not balanced. That also assumes that their privacy will be protected throughout the process, but I would be shocked if it were, because leaks happen in such instances.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government’s Continuous Improvement Programme and Updated Complaints Policy

Meeting date: 22 November 2022

Kenneth Gibson

That is a fair comment. Who will publish the report every six months?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 22 November 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I will ask you about one more thing that I and committee members are a bit concerned about. Normally, capital cannot be used for day-to-day resource spending. It appears from the figures that we have been provided with that savings of around £150.1 million have been made in relation to the capital budget. Is it the intention for that to be spent on resource? Normally, money from capital is not spent in that way—for example, on salaries. We have seen money go the other way, from resource to capital, but that is not something that we see very often.