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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 25 June 2025
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Displaying 3510 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I would have thought that some people would just not bother about a 1p increase; some might not bother with 2p or 3p, but the higher the increase, the more you will see behavioural change.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

[Inaudible.]—on the Scottish budget 2023-24. I warmly welcome to the meeting, in person, Professor Graeme Roy, who is chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission; Professor Francis Breedon, who is a commissioner on the Scottish Fiscal Commission; and John Ireland, who is the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s chief executive.

Professor Roy, I understand that you wish to make a short opening statement.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I am sorry—I try and put the questions to Professor Muscatelli so that he can decide who answers.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I think that it is a bit of a stretch to suggest that the Scottish child payment going from £10 in April this year to £25 next year somehow represents a real-terms cut.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Yes. I apologise—I should have been clearer about that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

That is interesting and is what one would anticipate.

You have said that the underlying structure of the Scottish economy is undergoing profound shifts. You talked about the impact of the pandemic. More people work from home, and some people suffer from prolonged health effects. Have you looked at that? In recent weeks, we have taken evidence from various panels to the effect that, across the UK, around 600,000 people have left the workforce; the corollary is that the number in Scotland is about 60,000. Do you look on that as a long-term consideration or as a one-year or two-year blip, when it comes to your projections of future economic growth and so on?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I have just one more question before I open things up to colleagues around the table. Last Thursday, you sent me a letter, which said that non-domestic rates will be levied on a revalued roll. You said that

“significant uncertainties remained throughout the forecasting process.”

Obviously, that is of concern to the Scottish Fiscal Commission. Will you expand on that a wee bit, for the record?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I will follow up before I let Liz Smith in. I am struck by something that you said, Professor Breedon. You said that you assume that the 1p increase in the top rate will increase taxes by only £3 million rather than £30 million because of behavioural changes, but that if we put the rate up by 2p, that amount would double to £6 million. Surely you get to a point where the effect of behavioural change exceeds the additional income level. If the volatility is such that a 1p increase will take 90 per cent off the revenue, surely 2p in the pound—I am quite astonished at that high level of elasticity—would tip it over the edge and you could end up with negative revenue.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

You have said that the UK Government’s decision not to enhance capital funding given the high levels of inflation

“will lead to a steep decline in the purchasing power of Scottish Government investments ... this may hamper the Scottish Government’s ability to meet its net zero targets and damage the economic recovery”.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 20 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

You said:

“it is important to achieve the right type of growth: growth that is sustainable and in line with other wider policy objectives, such as reducing inequality and the transition to net zero”.

Clearly, you will not be recommending the building of a giant coal mine, which they are suggesting will go ahead in Cumbria. Will you give us some examples of sustainable growth that is of the right type to reduce inequality and support the transition to net zero?