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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 2 September 2025
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Displaying 3539 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I think that the debt interest in the UK is now about six times Scotland’s annual expenditure on the national health service, which puts things in some kind of perspective.

You have touched on health and social care spending in relation to departmental expenditure limits, saying that it is

“reaching 45 per cent of total resource DELâ€

compared with

“25 per cent at the turn of the century.â€

That is clearly on an upward trajectory. Given the fiscal position that we are in, how sustainable do you believe that to be?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Carl, you said that there are options other than raising tax, which I find intriguing. What are those other options?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I thought he might be.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

What are the implications of that for the Scottish budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

My final question is effectively from the IFS.

Paul Johnson has said that the chancellor

“or his successor is going to have the mother and father of a headache when it comes to making the tough decisions implied by this statement in a year or two’s time.â€

What do you feel that the statement means in the medium to long term for the UK economy, and what might the knock-on effects be for Scotland’s economy?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

The historic tax burden is 37.7 per cent, which is, I think, the highest that it has been since the second world war. Professor Miles, do you want to come in?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

On that note, I will open up the session to colleagues.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

It is difficult to look at the triple lock, because, certainly, over the past decade, pensioners have become relatively more prosperous than other age groups—than younger people in particular. According to your analysis, the UK standard of living will fall by about 3.1 per cent by 2024-25. Have you looked at how that impacts on different age groups?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I am thinking about how the costs are set initially rather than the cost overruns. When you go out to tender on a project in the UK, it always seems to be 30, 40 or 50 per cent higher—or more—than an equivalent project would be on the continent, even in countries where the standard of living is comparable to or higher than ours. That seems rather odd. I just wanted to know whether the OBR took those kinds of things into account.

I have one last point, because our 90 minutes will finish in about one minute, and I do not want to keep you too long. It concerns what the chancellor did in his autumn statement and how that will impact on the OBR’s forecasts in the spring. I want you to comment on what the IFS said. Paul Johnson of the IFS said:

“In reality debt is set to be just about flat at around 93 per cent of national incomeâ€â€”

we have touched on that—

“And that is on the basis of a series of questionable, if not plain implausible, assumptions. It assumes that many aspects of day to day public service spending will be cut. It assumes a substantial real cut in public investment spending. It assumes that rates of fuel duties will rise year on year with inflation – which they have not done in more than a decade and they surely will not do next April. It assumes that the constant roll over of ‘temporary’ business rates cuts will stop. It assumes, of course, that the economy doesn’t suffer any negative shocks.â€

11:00  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

In his response to the statement, Paul Johnson said that fiscal drag is now running at £50 billion, and £14 billion of that is since March. That puts into perspective the £10 billion or so cut to NIC.

We discussed this to some extent in the earlier session, but you also say that the number of people who are on incapacity benefit and related universal credit has increased from around 1 million people to about 2.4 million during the past decade. Is that trend likely to continue, or will it reduce or stay the same? Where do you think we are with that, and what impact will it have on public finances?

11:15