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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 2 September 2025
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Displaying 3539 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I want to come back to capital, briefly. I will ask questions for only another three or four minutes, because colleagues are keen to come in. What is the impact of the reduction in capital on medium to long-term growth? Even if we accept the GDP deflator—we know that the reality is completely different, but assuming that we accept that as a real figure—that will still mean a 20 per cent reduction in capital over five years. What will be the impact on growth and productivity of capital taking such a hit?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I have a final question for the moment. In its autumn statement, the UK Government did not look beyond 2024-25. What impact has that had on your forecasting for Scotland?

12:30  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

It is always worth flying these kites, but Graeme Roy is switched on, even when such questions are coming in his direction.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Yes—and interest rates are predicted to stay higher for longer.

Finally, we will have the same 6.7 per cent increase in benefits as the UK is applying to its own portfolio of benefits. Obviously, that is good news for people who are in receipt of the Scottish child payment, which will be going up to £26.70. However, if there is a tipping point in tax, where is the tipping point in relation to social security and labour market participation? Has any work been done on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you very much for responding to our questions so succinctly and directly; I really appreciate that. We will have a two-minute break so that we can bring in a weird and wonderful collection of individuals known as the Scottish Fiscal Commission, who will be giving evidence very shortly.

13:37 Meeting suspended.  

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Our second agenda item is to take evidence from the Scottish Fiscal Commission on how it delivers its functions. We are joined by Professor Graeme Roy, chair, and John Ireland, chief executive, both of the Scottish Fiscal Commission. I welcome back Professor Roy, and I know that John Ireland was listening to our earlier session in the background. I invite Professor Roy to make a brief opening statement.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for that opening statement, Professor Roy. You and I have spoken privately about the work that you would like to do. I have read your report and cannot see anything on which I would want to criticise you. You have laid out, in detail, the potential principal risks, which do not appear to have arisen. What additional areas would you like to focus on if, for example, the review were to allow for additional resources for staff?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

It clashed with the Scottish National Party group meeting, which is why a lot of us were not there. However, the early morning, bacon-roll-type seminars are very useful, not only for ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ but for staff. I am keen that they should continue.

I know that John Mason has to rush to the chamber to be there for 2 o’clock, and of course we cannot meet after 2 o’clock. It is 5 to 2 now, so unless anyone has further questions, I will call the meeting to a halt.

Thank you again for your evidence, Professor Roy and John Ireland. It has been very helpful in our deliberations. I close the meeting and wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a happy and peaceful new year.

Meeting closed at 13:54.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Yes. You said that resource funding will rise by 8 per cent by 2028-29 but, in the figures on page 5, in the second line, there seems to be a 4.2 per cent rise rather than an 8 per cent rise. I just wonder why that is, or have I got it wrong?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Good morning, and welcome to the 34th meeting in 2023 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee.

The first item on our agenda is an evidence session with the Scottish Fiscal Commission to discuss the Scottish Budget 2024-25 and the commission’s December 2023 economic and fiscal forecasts, which were both published yesterday. We are joined by witnesses from the Scottish Fiscal Commission: Professor Graeme Roy, who is the chair and Professor David Ulph, who is a commissioner. Claire Murdoch, who joins us online, is head of fiscal sustainability and public funding. She is joining us remotely, sadly, due to Covid. However, I am glad that she is able to participate in the meeting. Welcome, everyone. I invite Professor Roy to make a brief opening statement.