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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 23 August 2025
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Displaying 3539 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I thank Professor Roy, Professor Breedon and Claire Murdoch for their contributions today. No doubt we will see you in the not too distant future.

10:55 Meeting continued in private until 11:46.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

You have said that Barnett consequentials are hard to reproduce.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

It would have to come from the NHS budget, policing, local government or whatever.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

At this point, I will not ask you exactly how you are doing that.

In your report, you spoke about

“higher spending on disability payments associated with higher demand than we forecast, a trend which has also arisen for disability payments in the rest of the UK.â€

That has led to further pressure on our social security budget, which is higher by about 1 per cent than was anticipated. Obviously, a 1 per cent increase in a £5.3 billion spend is significant. Do you have any views on why that happened?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

A lot of it is housekeeping as much as anything else.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I was looking at paragraph 2.11 as you were speaking, which talks about that. That is a very important point.

I also notice that the responses to labour force surveys have been declining over the years, so there is an issue or concern about accuracy.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. That has exhausted questions from colleagues, but I have a couple more to finish off with. One of the issues is that we have had six-month spending reviews rather than multiyear or even annual spending reviews, with the budget having to be revisited in an emergency context every summer.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Go on. I am just talking about it from a sustainability and scrutiny perspective, not necessarily from a policy point of view. If we knew where we were and what was going to happen come May, because money had been allocated to certain budgets and the organisations to which that money had been allocated—whether it be the NHS, local government or the culture sector—knew that that was the money that they had to spend, would that not be much more sustainable than having to keep going back to find additional money from somewhere in the budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I will now open up the session to colleagues, starting with the deputy convener, Michael Marra.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 3 September 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Finally, on the winter fuel payment, if the Government decided that it would pay the winter fuel payment, not only would it have to pay the £140 million to £160 million back next year, if it continued to make the payment, it would have to find £140 million to £160 million next year on top of that, and every other year. We could end up with a situation whereby, over five years, the Government could have to find £700 million to £800 million, and possibly more, from an ageing population.