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At this stage in the financial year, those tend to be minor aspects of public spending. We will look to take those programmes forward as soon as possible, but it may be that they have to be commenced in the next financial year. It will be a variety of programmes across Government.

Absolutely.

On the level of provision that we have here, I do not really think that that could be the case, to be honest. I would expect to undertake expenditure around PPE preparedness—the committee will be familiar with the importance of the PPE provision in general in all aspects of the health and social care system. I cannot be certain, but it is likely that we will have a booster vaccination programme, so that money will be spent. In addition, the testing arrangements are at a level of preparedness in that we maintain a capacity to undertake testing, which creates a platform for us to significantly increase it should we be required to do so.

The best answer that I can give is that I expect that expenditure to be required during the financial year. Of course, we monitor the situation regularly. The committee will appreciate from the updates that I have provided on the wider financial situation that, for the Government, demand and pressures on the budget in general can vary widely over the course of the financial year. Even if we do not have to spend the money in those areas, I imagine that something else could come along that would demand further expenditure.

There is a significant role for greater digital connectivity in our public services, which will enable us to better manage information about the way in which people interact with their public services. People of Mr Whittle’s and my generation have in their minds an image of IT systems as large and complex things but, of course, we all have phones with various apps on them that gather and use all sorts of flexible information. There are opportunities to better use that data—the apps on my phone tell me about my fitness, my health and wellbeing and how much I exercise, and sometimes they are reassuring and sometimes they are a wake-up call. A lot can be done to address these questions, and I am open to how we explore that.

We have access to and collect a lot of data. Whether those are the right data sets to help us address some of the questions that we face is a matter of debate, but I am generally open to the idea of using digital connectivity better. A critical part of our public service reform agenda is that, as we go through a really challenging spending period, we expect public bodies to be adept at using digital connectivity to support the finding of the solutions that we are looking for—that is what we are setting out to them.

If I may say so, we went from, “This is particularly disjointed,” to, “This is a series of sweeping generalisations”.

I am not dismissing Jackie Baillie’s points because I recognise the importance of that. What is the point of a national performance framework if we do not align our policy interventions with—this is crucial—a budget to support the outcomes that we are trying to achieve? There must be alignment.

I am very mindful of that point. My contention is that, in taking budget decisions, I am doing as much as I can to align our budget with the successful delivery of progress on the national outcomes in the NPF. However, I am open to a conversation on whether we could strike a better balance or put emphasis on particular areas. I assure the committee that the Government takes that endeavour seriously.

I will go and look at the data, so that I can complete my view of this.

As for the other sweeping generalisation—

Thank you, convener. I will make some brief opening remarks.

I am grateful to the committee for the opportunity to discuss a number of matters that relate to the impact of the 2023-24 budget with regard to the Scottish Government’s Covid recovery strategy and the Covid-19 strategic framework—as well as any other issues that are on the minds of committee members, of course.

The Scottish Government’s 2023-24 budget has been developed in the most turbulent economic and fiscal context that most people can remember. The impacts of the pandemic, coupled with Russia’s continued illegal invasion of Ukraine, have created a disruptive set of financial and economic challenges that every Government must address: energy and fuel prices are surging and inflation has reached a 40-year high. Furthermore, the UK Government is responsible for additional uncertainty and instability: Brexit has impacted our labour supply and undermined trade with our nearest neighbours. These are incredibly difficult times in which to manage public finances, and the constraints of devolution mean that the Scottish Government cannot borrow to meet additional costs that arise during the financial year.

In that challenging context, the 2023-24 budget focuses on reducing child poverty, supporting a just transition to a net zero economy and delivering fiscally sustainable person-centred public services. Those priorities are aligned with the principles of the Scottish Government’s Covid recovery strategy, which focuses on addressing systemic inequalities and supporting those who were most disproportionately affected during the pandemic. Since the Covid recovery strategy was published, the worsening cost crisis has made it even more critical for the Scottish Government to focus its efforts on supporting those most in need.

The Government has consistently taken decisive action to prioritise spending where it is most needed, including in the emergency budget review. The 2023-24 budget demonstrates the Scottish Government’s continued commitment to prioritising those who most need support. For example, we are extending and increasing the Scottish child payment to £25 per child per week, uprating all devolved benefits by 10.1 per cent, widening the warmer homes fuel poverty programme and freezing rail fares until at least March 2023.

In total, the Scottish Government has allocated around £3 billion this financial year to contribute towards mitigating the increased costs crisis. More than £1 billion of that support is available only in Scotland, with the remainder being more generous than that provided elsewhere in the UK.

With regard to the on-going response to Covid-19, the Scottish Government published a revised strategic framework in February 2022 that sets out our long-term approach to managing Covid-19 and its associated harms.

The Scottish Government remains alert to the threat that potential new variants of Covid-19 pose, and I welcome the national respiratory surveillance and variants and mutations plans that have been published by Public Health Scotland, which set out the processes that will be undertaken to identify and assess any future risk. We are supporting those plans with direct investment of approximately £7.4 million and £3 million respectively, with up to a further £3 million available for waste water surveillance.

The Scottish Government continues to work with partners and is ready to respond to any increase in the threat that the virus poses, whether that comes from waning immunity, a new variant or other factors. In any future response, we will apply careful judgment to ensure that responses are appropriately targeted and the necessary resources prioritised. In my recent letter to the committee, I included further details of funding arrangements for the on-going pandemic response. I will continue to keep the committee updated on in-year changes to the Scottish budget through corporate reporting and in-year budget revisions.

I am happy to answer any questions that the committee might have.

The data that you recorded about the loss of life in relation to Covid is very sobering and demonstrates the importance of taking all necessary measures that are appropriate in the context to protect the population against Covid.

Obviously, the commitment that the Government has given to the vaccination programme has provided significant protection for wider population health in relation to Covid. The vaccination programme that has been set out is targeted at a range of particular groups that have been identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation. The Scottish Government continues to do what it has always done, which is to follow the clinical advice that is given to us by the JCVI. The Covid vaccination programme is available to a wide variety of groups, including older adults in care homes, people who are over the age of 50, front-line health and social care workers, and those people in the five to 64 age group who are at risk from Covid.

While the vaccination programme is targeted towards those individuals, the uptake varies in different groupings. For example, in older adults in care homes, the uptake in Scotland is 89.3 per cent; among the over-65s, it is 90 per cent; and, among those people who are aged 50 to 64, it is 64.3 per cent. The uptake rate for front-line health and social care workers varies, but the percentage is in the low 50s. Although there is variation, those are generally pretty high rates of uptake of the available vaccination.

In relation to cost, the expenditure on vaccination in the current financial year is expected to be around £170 million. That does not include the cost of the vaccinations; those costs are dealt with as part of the four-nations programme. If we were to opt out of that programme, we would be likely to get a consequential but, for reasons of efficiency and procurement, we have habitually taken part in a four-nations programme on, for example, flu vaccinations. That is the cost of the delivery of that programme in Scotland, and we are planning on a relatively similar amount in the 2023-24 forecasts.

My final point is that we have followed the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation this year, and we expect to follow it next year and to fund that accordingly. We await further advice from the JCVI about its review of the appropriate steps to take for a vaccination programme for the next year. We anticipate that the current programme will end at the end of March.

We are working on the assumption that a further booster programme will be implemented. As I indicated in my answer to the convener, sums of money at about the same level as those that we have had in the budget for this year are predicted to be deployed in the next financial year to support a booster programme. Obviously, if we get advice that the programme is not necessary, that money will not be required, but a prudent assumption at this stage is that there is likely to be a booster programme.