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Okay. Maybe I can ask how we can fully understand the full picture around long Covid when its impact is spread around different statistical sets.

Yes.

That is great. I am sorry, Jim: we need to move on because of the time.

We will now continue to take evidence on the inquiry and I am pleased to welcome our second panel to the meeting. We have received apologies this morning from John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter at the Financial Times. Joining us remotely are Tom Waters, senior research economist, and Tom Wernham, research economist, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Philip Whyte, director of the Institute for Public Policy Research Scotland, joins us in person. Thank you for giving us your time this morning.

We estimate that this session will run until around 11.30 am. Each member should have approximately 15 minutes to speak to the panel and to ask their questions. If those witnesses who are attending remotely this morning would like to respond to an issue that is being discussed, please put R in the chat box and we will try to bring you in. I am keen to ensure that everyone has an opportunity to speak and I apologise in advance, therefore, if time runs on too much and I need to interrupt members or witnesses in the interests of brevity.

I will put the first question to Philip Whyte. What are the main health conditions that account for long-term illness as the reason for economic inactivity in Scotland?

I will move on to the next question. What can the statistics tell us about the impact of differing policy approaches in Scotland and the rest of the UK pre-pandemic, during the pandemic and post-pandemic?

Murdo Fraser wants to come in on that point, and then I will come back to John Mason.

Good morning and welcome to the 24th meeting of the COVID-19 Recovery Committee in 2022. We have received apologies this morning from Brian Whittle.

This morning, we will continue our inquiry into the impact of the pandemic on the Scottish labour market. I would like to welcome to the meeting Susie Fitton, policy manager, Inclusion Scotland, who joins us remotely; Pamela Smith, head of economy and poverty, Public Health Scotland, who joins us in person; Professor Sir Aziz Sheikh, professor of primary care research and development, director of the Usher institute and dean of data, University of Edinburgh, who joins us in person; and Gerry McCartney, professor of wellbeing, University of Glasgow, who joins us remotely.

Thank you all for giving us your time this morning and for your written submissions. We estimate that this session will run up to about 10.20, and each member should have about 15 minutes each to speak to the panel and to ask their questions.

If the witnesses who are attending remotely this morning would like to respond to any issues that are being discussed, they should type R in the chat box and we will try to bring them in. I am keen to ensure that everyone gets an opportunity to speak. I apologise in advance that, if time runs on too much, I may have to interrupt members or witnesses in the interests of brevity.

Could I ask the witnesses to briefly introduce themselves?

Thank you very much.

We now turn to questions, and I will begin with Inclusion Scotland. Susie Fitton, thank you for your very detailed written submission. The committee has a keen interest in further investigating long Covid. Your submission says that nearly 4 per cent of people in Scotland are currently living with long Covid, which is around 202,000 people. Of those, 83,000 people have done so for more than 12 months and 44,000 are reporting that it affects their ability to undertake day-to-day activities.

One of the things that I found quite worrying in the submission was the fact that early studies suggest that at least half of those with long Covid meet the diagnostic criteria for ME. We know that ME is a profoundly debilitating neurological disease that can affect multiple systems in the body. I understand that, prior to Covid, there were 21,000 people with ME in Scotland. I note that a substantial proportion of long Covid sufferers are experiencing similar illnesses, which will have a direct impact on their ability to work. I note that you feel that action is urgently needed to address this problem. What would you like to see the Government doing to address that problem?

Thank you, Susie. That is very helpful.

I will move on to the link between long-term sickness and economic inactivity. Scotland has a higher proportion of 16 to 64-year-olds who are inactive because of long-term sickness when compared with the rest of the United Kingdom; in Scotland, the figure has increased to 7 per cent, compared with 5.4 per cent in the rest of the UK. Why is Scotland relatively worse than the rest of the UK? On an international scale, how do we explain the continued rise in the UK inactivity figures in comparison to other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, where the figures are declining?

Professor Sheikh wants to come in.